It was a mistake to announce this early. Here’s what I wrote in November:
Americans hate inevitability. We like our plot twists…so go away for awhile. Do NOT hire a pollster, raise money, attend fundraisers, sit on a corporate board, appear regularly on cable news, or encourage “will he or won’t he” chatter– just disappear, and then sneak up on us in August 2019.
By next summer, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Bernie Sanders will have been sniping at each other for months. America will be sick to death of their stupid faces. The country, and Iowans in particular, will be craving a fresh alternative.
That would have been the ideal time to jump in– with billions of dollars-worth of fawning media coverage from bored reporters desperate for a new angle.
But Having Said That…
Beto O’Rourke is still the frontrunner– not because he’s the best candidate, but because he will be in about 6 months.
In other words:
- Joe Biden is a beloved veteran that’s past his prime– 2016 was the best he’s ever going to be.
- Bernie Samders is stat stuffer that can’t win the big game.
- Kamala Harris is an overpaid free agent.
- Beto O’Rourke will start the season making a ton of turnovers but finish the season as clearly the best player.
Beto will be declared a flop at several points throughout 2020, but will become a legitimate threat to win the Democrat nomination by October-ish.