Here's Why
Kamala can't win
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Here’s Kamala Harris’ path to the Democrat nomination

MFP & co. Published January 30, 2019

A lot can change.

Maybe the DNC blows up the primary schedule or something. But as of January 2018, this is Kamala Harris’ only path to the Democrat nomination.

Feb 3 Iowa Closed Caucus Must place 3-4
Candidates never seem to fully grasp what a uniquely humiliating experience campaigning in Iowa is…

It’s 8 months of sucking up to competing constituencies– from ethanol shysters to religious weirdos to fake libertarians to local racist talk show hosts– it’s a place where dignity goes to die.

It’s not a place where elderly women hiding their fat stomachs in pantsuits tend to excel.

You may recall that despite having every advantage imaginable, Hillary Clinton only beat an old, unkempt Jewish dude by .5 percent.

Kamala’s odds vs. the field: 5%

Feb 11 New Hampshire Mixed Must place 1-3
Elizabeth Warren’s plan is to campaign in New Hampshire while everyone else dukes it out in Iowa.

But it’s looking more and more like Warren will drop out early rather than face a humiliating defeat next door to her home state– in which case, there is a small chance Warren endorses Kamala and puts her over the top.

Kamala’s odds vs. the field: 25%

Feb 15 Nevada Closed Caucus Must place 1-4
In short:

Nevada’s proximity to Kamala’s home state of CA (and lots and lots of $$$) vs. the progressive grassroots for Bernie/Beto.

Either way, South Carolina renders Nevada largely irrelevant.

Kamala’s odds vs. the field: 40%

Feb 22 South Carolina Open MUST WIN
It gets late fast.

After 18 months of “don’t pay attention to the polls, it’s early, it’s early”– by late February, lower-polling candidates will be pressured to drop out, and pundits will be declaring “prohibitive favorites”.

Kamala will need to put on her fakest Southern drawl for African-American churchgoers if she is to overcome Bernie/Biden/Beto’s advantage among progressives, Democrat men, and moderate Republican crossovers.

Kamala’s odds vs. the field: 40%

Mar 3 Super Tuesday Mixed MUST WIN
Assuming Kamala has won South Carolina and the accompanying fawning coverage:

  • AL – Kamala
  • CA – Kamala
  • MA – Kamala (assumig Warren dropped out)
  • NC – Kamala
  • OK – Whatever (possibly Biden/Beto)
  • TN – Whatever (possibly Biden/Beto)
  • TX – Whatever
  • VA – Kamala (conventional wisdom says Kamala runs up the score w/ college-educated suburban women, but I posit women are biologically and culturally predisposed to subconsciously hate other women– and as such, Bernie/Biden/Beto will be surprisingly competitive)
  • VT – Bernie

Kamala’s odds vs. the field: 50%

Mar 7 Louisiana Closed MUST WIN
Assuming Kamala has won South Carolina and Super Tuesday, and the accompanying fawning coverage:

Odds of winning: 80%

Mar 10 Super Tuesday 2 Mixed Must place 1-2
Keep in mind that at this point, most of the field has dropped out:

  • HI – Kamala
  • ID – Whatever
  • MI – Kamala (assuming Bernie dropped out by then)
  • MO – Kamala
  • MS – Kamala
  • OH – Whatever

Odds of winning: 75%

Mar 15 Super Tuesday 3 Mixed MUST WIN
By 3:10am Wednesday, Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski will be gushing over the “presumptive Democrat nominee” and engaging in journalistic cunnilingus in hopes of securing access throughout her possible presidency.

  • AZ – Kamala (100% with Kyrsten Sinema’s endorsement)
  • FL – Kamala
  • IN – Whatever

Odds of winning: 90%

And that’s that.

Even under this scenario, it is unlikely that Kamala can defeat Trump given:

  • (1) The sheer avalanche of untraceable Eurasian oligarch shadow funds pouring into the race on Nunes’ behalf, and
  • (2) The advanced microtargeting and structural GOTV support from the GRU.
  • (3) “Mexican” or “Muslim” false flag attacks just before the erection.

For the record, MFP currently boasts an 89.1% accuracy rating.

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