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MFP accurately reax to Obamacare ruling

Musha Hadeen Published December 17, 2018

Activist judge and Federalist Society member Reed O’Connor ruled on Friday that Obamacare was “invalid”. While the ruling will almost certainly be reversed, Obamacare remains unsustainable in the long-term without legislative intervention.

This is going to shake out in 1 of 3 ways:

Bast Case Scenario
Ideally, the Supreme Court will uphold O’Connor’s ruling– causing severe financial distress (or worse) to millions of Americans, particularly Trump’s poor, low-information base:

Highest non-elderly population
w/ preexisting conditions
State % 2016 winner
AL 33% Trump
AR 32% Trump
IN 30% Trump
KS 30% Trump
KY 33% Trump
LA 30% Trump
MS 34% Trump
MO 30% Trump
OK 31% Trump
TN 32% Trump
WV 36% Trump

MFP currently pegs Trump’s odds of reerection at 60%. If, however, Obamacare is struck down by partisan Republican judges– the ensuing mass-suffering would guarantee a Democrat landslide in 2020, and some form of universal healthcare by 2022.

Worst Case Scenario
SCOTUS engages in all manner of judicial gymnastics to uphold the most popular provisions of Obamacare, and then the following happens:

  • (1) Trump’s poor, low-information base never realize they rely on Obamacare to stay alive.
  • (2) Trump continues sabotaging Obamacare.
  • (3) Democrats are forced to come to the table to prevent Obamacare’s collapse– making a number of concessions, including border wall funding.
  • (4) Trump takes credit for the improved version of Obamacare, calling it Trumpcare.
  • (5) Trump coasts to reerection.

In this scenario, the fall of the Republic is accelerated to possibly within our lifetimes.

Okay Case Scenario
SCOTUS engages in all manner of judicial gymnastics to uphold the most popular provisions of Obamacare, and then the following happens:

  • (1) Trump’s poor, low-information base never realize they rely on Obamacare to stay alive.
  • (2) Trump continues sabotaging Obamacare.
  • (3) Democrats are forced to come to the table to prevent Obamacare’s collapse– making a number of concessions.
  • (4) Trump takes credit for the improved version of Obamacare, calling it Trumpcare.
  • (5) Principled conservatives accuse Trump of “socialist” healthcare.
  • (6) Trump gets primaried.
  • (7) Democrat wins a contested erection.

In this scenario, there is a negligible delay in the fall of the Republic.

For the record, MFP currently has an 89.1% accuracy rate.

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