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Beto O’Rourke is making 3 big mistakes

Musha Hadeen Published December 11, 2018

“It could be a cakewalk”— I wrote that on November 7. Since then, Beto O’Rourke has made 3 pivotal strategic errors.

Getting chummy w/ national Democrats
Aside from his personal attributes, the most critical component of Beto’s popularity is the ability to espouse progressive values while seeming apart from national Democrats.

By keeping his distance, Beto wasn’t held politically liable for every manufactured Pelosi gaffe or Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez controversy.

As such, Beto should’ve let the following motherfuckers go straight to voicemail:

There will come a time when Beto has to suck up to these people. But that time isn’t 12 months before Iowa the caucuses.

Not going on a long ass vacation
Give Americans a chance to get sick of the other candidates. Give Americans a chance to look for alternatives. Give Americans a chance to clamor for something “new”.

  • Do NOT hire a pollster
  • Do NOT raise money
  • Do NOT attend fundraisers
  • Do NOT regularly appear on cable news
  • Do NOT encourage “will he or won’t he” chatter

Just go away for a while.

Imagine the billions of dollars-worth of free media coverage from a surprise announcement in July-ish 2019.

Fighting the last war
Running for President is a daunting. Where do you even start?? It’s natural that Beto would seek guidance from experienced advisers.

But they’re using an old playbook.

Post-Bush/Clinton, the whole “build a fundraising Death Star to look inevitable and ward off challengers” schtick only breeds suspicion and engenders passionate resistance.

Charismatic candidates are best served following the Trump and Macron playbook:

  • (1) Appear, or preferably be, wary of the Establishment(s).
  • (2) Invite political experts to dismiss your candidacy, which only hardens your base’s resolve.

    It’s like parents forbidding their daughter from dating a shithead– it only guarantees the shithead gets a blowjob.

  • (3) Stand back while every else attacks each other.
  • (4) Peak late.

On the last point, being the frontrunner in Iowa fucking sucks…

Date Leader Winner
12/2002 Gephardt +8 Kerry +3
02/2007 Edwards +5 Obama +8
01/2015 Clinton +60 Clinton +3
07/2007 Romney +20 Huckabee +9
07/2011 Romney +6 Santorum +0
08/2015 Walker +5 Cruz +9

If it happens, it happens. But don’t sell your soul for an early lead in Iowa.

For the record, MFP currently has an 89.1% accuracy rate.

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