“It could be a cakewalk”— I wrote that on November 7. Since then, Beto O’Rourke has made 3 pivotal strategic errors.
By keeping his distance, Beto wasn’t held politically liable for every manufactured Pelosi gaffe or Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez controversy.
As such, Beto should’ve let the following motherfuckers go straight to voicemail:
- Obama Worlders (mostly strategerists looking to rip off Beto’s small donors)
- Al Sharpton
- Elizabeth Warren’s scumbag adviser
There will come a time when Beto has to suck up to these people. But that time isn’t 12 months before Iowa the caucuses.
- Do NOT hire a pollster
- Do NOT raise money
- Do NOT attend fundraisers
- Do NOT regularly appear on cable news
- Do NOT encourage “will he or won’t he” chatter
Just go away for a while.
Imagine the billions of dollars-worth of free media coverage from a surprise announcement in July-ish 2019.
But they’re using an old playbook.
Post-Bush/Clinton, the whole “build a fundraising Death Star to look inevitable and ward off challengers” schtick only breeds suspicion and engenders passionate resistance.
Charismatic candidates are best served following the Trump and Macron playbook:
- (1) Appear, or preferably be, wary of the Establishment(s).
- (2) Invite political experts to dismiss your candidacy, which only hardens your base’s resolve.
It’s like parents forbidding their daughter from dating a shithead– it only guarantees the shithead gets a blowjob.
- (3) Stand back while every else attacks each other.
- (4) Peak late.
On the last point, being the frontrunner in Iowa fucking sucks…
|12/2002||Gephardt +8||Kerry +3|
|02/2007||Edwards +5||Obama +8|
|01/2015||Clinton +60||Clinton +3|
|07/2007||Romney +20||Huckabee +9|
|07/2011||Romney +6||Santorum +0|
|08/2015||Walker +5||Cruz +9|
If it happens, it happens. But don’t sell your soul for an early lead in Iowa.
For the record, MFP currently has an 89.1% accuracy rate.