A lot can change.
Maybe there’s a baby out of wedlock or the DNC blows up the primary schedule. But as of November 2018– without a Bush or Hillary Death Star on the horizon– Beta’s path to the nomination could be a cakewalk.
|Feb 3||Iowa||Closed Caucus||Must Place 1st|
|Having come within 0.5% in 2016, Bernie is the favorite. If he wins, we get a Sanders-Harris ticket (given Kamala’s supposed, but as yet untested, ability to turnout African-Americans in the South).
In Beta’s favor:
Meanwhile, Bernie will be subjected to the kind of scrutiny reserved for frontrunners– not to mention unrelenting coordinated attacks from Fox News, talk radio, and the GRU.
Beta’s odds of winning: 33%
|Feb 11||New Hampshire||Mixed||Must place 1-4|
|Massachusetts’ Elizabeth Warren will plant her flag in neighboring New Hampshire while everyone dukes it out in Iowa.
In Beta’s favor, NH is where many 2nd and 3rd tier candidates will make their final stand. Those candidates will throw the kitchen sink at Warren, while Beta gets a head start in South Carolina.
Odds of winning: 2.5%
|Feb 15||Nevada||Closed Caucus||Must place 1-4|
|Nevada is a machine state. Nevadans, and Democrats in particular, tend to vote in lock-step w/ their party leaders and union bosses.
Maybe Harry Reid sits this one out, or maybe he doesn’t. Maybe Nevada’s proximity to California helps Kamala, or maybe it doesn’t.
It doesn’t really matter because everyone’s focus will be on South Carolina– the first real inflection point after IA.
Odds of winning: 7.5%
|Feb 22||South Carolina||Open||Must place 1-2|
|It gets late fast.
After 18 months of “don’t pay attention to the polls, it’s early, it’s early”– by late February, lower-polling candidates will be pressured to drop out.
And if Beta takes both Iowa and South Carolina– w/ an expanding war chest and Super Tuesday just around the corner– he will have a stranglehold on the nomination.
Kamala will need to put on her fakest Southern drawl for the African-American churches if she is to overcome Beta’s advantage among young progressives, Democrat men, and moderate Republican crossovers.
I predict that, shockingly, blacks in South Carolina will turn out for Kamala in Obama-like numbers– giving her a much-needed win (or close finish) and extending the campaign another month.
Odds of winning: 45%
|Mar 3||Super Tuesday||Mixed||Must place 1st|
|This will be a gentleman’s sweep.
By around 1:30am EST Wednesday morning, Beta will be the prohibitive frontrunner for the nomination.
Odds of winning: 75%
|Mar 7||Louisiana||Closed||Must place 1-2|
|Kamala is expected to do well here, but Beta heads into the contest with a week of fawning Super Tuesday victory coverage.
Odds of winning: 55%
|Mar 10||Super Tuesday 2||Mixed||Must place 1-2|
|Keep in mind that at this point, Beta’s most formidable opponents will be broke and/or on the verge of dropping out.
Odds of winning: 50%
|Mar 15||Super Tuesday 3||Mixed||Must place 1st|
|By 3:10am Wednesday, Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski will be gushing over the “presumptive Democrat nominee” and greedily slurping Beta’s balls to ensure they have access throughout his presidency.
Odds of winning: 90%
|Apr 7||Wisconsin||Open||Must place 1st|
|This should be the nail in the coffin.
Far-left politics w/ a slight hint of racism and “they took err factory jerbs”-ism makes Wisconsin an absolute lock for Beta.
Odds of winning: 1,000,000%
And that’s that.
If he runs, and if he wins Iowa, Beta should wrap up the nomination by April. By then, the only thing left to do is negotiate Kamala’s exit on issues such as:
- VP consideration
- Help paying off campaign debt
- Primetime speaking slot at the convention
- Vague pledge about women’s rights yada yada yada
Beta will be credited w/ a massive surge in Democrat turnout, and flooded w/ enough small donations to match Trump’s support among large corporations, the GRU, and Israel Firsters.
For the record, MFP hit on 9 out of 11 Senate picks in 2018, and correctly predicted that the popular vote would settle in the 5-7% range back in June (when the generic ballot was fluctuating wildly). In 2016, MFP whiffed on the erectoral college, but exactly predicted the popular vote.