Here's Why
Kamala can't win
Post-New Year's
2020 Power Rankings
Beto O'Rourke's
Path to the Nomination
Richard Ojeda's
Path to the Nomination
Post Mid-Terms
2020 Power Rankings

Here’s Beto O’Rourke’s path to the Democrat nomination

Musha Hadeen Published November 14, 2018

A lot can change.

Maybe there’s a baby out of wedlock or the DNC blows up the primary schedule. But as of November 2018– without a Bush or Hillary Death Star on the horizon– Beta’s path to the nomination could be a cakewalk.

Feb 3 Iowa Closed Caucus Must Place 1st
Having come within 0.5% in 2016, Bernie is the favorite. If he wins, we get a Sanders-Harris ticket (given Kamala’s supposed, but as yet untested, ability to turnout African-Americans in the South).

In Beta’s favor:

  • Beta has 100% name ID and approaching universal favorability among the Democrat activists that will decide the Iowa caucuses.
  • Beta is everything Democrats love about Bernie (single-payer, outsider, same lack of legislative record to complain about, etc.) except that he’s not 1,000 years old.
  • Without a Clinton or Bush machine to bury him in an avalanche of negative ads, no Democrat will go negative enough for long enough to drive down Beta’s favorability (for fear of drawing the ire of increasingly Tea Party-like progressive activists).

Meanwhile, Bernie will be subjected to the kind of scrutiny reserved for frontrunners– not to mention unrelenting coordinated attacks from Fox News, talk radio, and the GRU.

Beta’s odds of winning: 33%

Feb 11 New Hampshire Mixed Must place 1-4
Massachusetts’ Elizabeth Warren will plant her flag in neighboring New Hampshire while everyone dukes it out in Iowa.

In Beta’s favor, NH is where many 2nd and 3rd tier candidates will make their final stand. Those candidates will throw the kitchen sink at Warren, while Beta gets a head start in South Carolina.

Odds of winning: 2.5%

Feb 15 Nevada Closed Caucus Must place 1-4
Nevada is a machine state. Nevadans, and Democrats in particular, tend to vote in lock-step w/ their party leaders and union bosses.

Maybe Harry Reid sits this one out, or maybe he doesn’t. Maybe Nevada’s proximity to California helps Kamala, or maybe it doesn’t.

It doesn’t really matter because everyone’s focus will be on South Carolina– the first real inflection point after IA.

Odds of winning: 7.5%

Feb 22 South Carolina Open Must place 1-2
It gets late fast.

After 18 months of “don’t pay attention to the polls, it’s early, it’s early”– by late February, lower-polling candidates will be pressured to drop out.

And if Beta takes both Iowa and South Carolina– w/ an expanding war chest and Super Tuesday just around the corner– he will have a stranglehold on the nomination.

Kamala will need to put on her fakest Southern drawl for the African-American churches if she is to overcome Beta’s advantage among young progressives, Democrat men, and moderate Republican crossovers.

I predict that, shockingly, blacks in South Carolina will turn out for Kamala in Obama-like numbers– giving her a much-needed win (or close finish) and extending the campaign another month.

Odds of winning: 45%

Mar 3 Super Tuesday Mixed Must place 1st
This will be a gentleman’s sweep.

By around 1:30am EST Wednesday morning, Beta will be the prohibitive frontrunner for the nomination.

  • AL – Beta (maybe Kamala)
  • CA – Kamala
  • MA – Warren
  • NC – Beta (maybe Kamala)
  • OK – Beta
  • TN – Beta
  • TX – Beta
  • VA – Beta (conventional wisdom says Kamala runs up the score w/ college-educated suburban women, but I posit women are biologically and culturally predisposed to subconsciously hate other women– and as such, Beta will be surprisingly competitive w/ this demo)
  • VT – Bernie

Odds of winning: 75%

Mar 7 Louisiana Closed Must place 1-2
Kamala is expected to do well here, but Beta heads into the contest with a week of fawning Super Tuesday victory coverage.

Odds of winning: 55%

Mar 10 Super Tuesday 2 Mixed Must place 1-2
Keep in mind that at this point, Beta’s most formidable opponents will be broke and/or on the verge of dropping out.

  • HI – Kamala (no evidence, just a hunch)
  • ID – Beta
  • MI – Kamala (Bernie will be out by then)
  • MO – Beta (maybe Kamala)
  • MS – Beta (maybe Kamala)
  • OH – Beta (Biden will be out by then)

Odds of winning: 50%

Mar 15 Super Tuesday 3 Mixed Must place 1st
By 3:10am Wednesday, Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski will be gushing over the “presumptive Democrat nominee” and greedily slurping Beta’s balls to ensure they have access throughout his presidency.

  • AZ – Beta (w/ Kyrsten Sinema, maybe Kamala??)
  • FL – Beta
  • IN – Beta

Odds of winning: 90%

Apr 7 Wisconsin Open Must place 1st
This should be the nail in the coffin.

Far-left politics w/ a slight hint of racism and “they took err factory jerbs”-ism makes Wisconsin an absolute lock for Beta.

Odds of winning: 1,000,000%

And that’s that.

If he runs, and if he wins Iowa, Beta should wrap up the nomination by April. By then, the only thing left to do is negotiate Kamala’s exit on issues such as:

  • VP consideration
  • Help paying off campaign debt
  • Primetime speaking slot at the convention
  • Vague pledge about women’s rights yada yada yada

Beta will be credited w/ a massive surge in Democrat turnout, and flooded w/ enough small donations to match Trump’s support among large corporations, the GRU, and Israel Firsters.

Track Record

For the record, MFP hit on 9 out of 11 Senate picks in 2018, and correctly predicted that the popular vote would settle in the 5-7% range back in June (when the generic ballot was fluctuating wildly). In 2016, MFP whiffed on the erectoral college, but exactly predicted the popular vote.

Related: Richard Ojeda’s path to the nomination

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