MFP accurately guesses the Anonymous Op-Ed Guy

Mfp   Published September 6, 2018

The anonymous author(s) of the New York Times op-ed can be identified using the following data points:

  • (1) Anonymous trusts the NYT to conceal his or her identity, which suggests Anonymous has previously leaked to the NYT without getting burned.
  • (2) Mike Schmidt and/or Maggie Haberman almost certainly connected Anonymous w/ NYT’s op-ed page editor John Dao.
  • (3) Dao insists no special effort to disguise the person’s writing style.
  • (4) Anonymous is Mike Pence, or used “lodestar” to direct suspicion towards Pence.
  • (5) Anonymous is a libertarian-ish, but not libertarian.
    • (5a) The GRU has successfully infiltrated and co-opted the libertarian movement, but Anonymous continues to oppose Putin, and support out-of-control military spending.
    • (5b) Anonymous admires John McCain (many libertarians celebrated his death).
  • (6) Anonymous supports or is indifferent to Trump’s Muslim ban, support for Nazis, or immigrant child kidnapping policy.

MFP accurately guesses the Anonymous Op-Ed Guy

First, we can rule out a few candidates.

Why It Can’t Be Them
Stephen Miller • Hates McCain
• Loves Putin
• Loves Trump’s Nazi policies.
Ben Carson • Has 5th grade vocabulary.
• Indifferent towards McCain.
Mick Mulvaney • Is literally retarded.
Steve Mnuchin • Could not care less about any of the concerns listed in the article.
Sonny Perdue • Could not care less about any of the concerns listed in the article.
Wilber Ross • Could not care less about any of the concerns listed in the article.

Below are the likeliest suspects in order of probability:

Kirstjen Nielsen – 2.5%

She fits the profile: Extremely racist, but w/ good reason to betray Trump.

On the other hand, Nielsen has no special affinity for John McCain or preserving democratic institutions.

Incidentally, I would do her.

Nikki Haley – 2.5%

She fits the profile: Fmr. Never Trumper w/ ties to the Senate and presidential aspirations of her own.

On the other hand, if Haley were going to write an op-ed, she likely would have criticized Trump’s Nazi policies.

Kellyanne Conway – 2.5%

She fits the profile: Fmr. Never Trumper w/ good reason to betray Trump.

On the other hand, if Conway were going to write an op-ed, she likely would have criticized Trump’s Nazi policies.

Larry Kudlow – 2.5%

He fits the profile: Establishment Republican that opposes almost every single policy he is now being ordered to implement.

On the other hand, if Kudlow were going to write an op-ed, he likely would have criticized Trump’s Nazi policies.

Jeff Sessions – 5%

Sessions fits the profile to a T:

  • Supports Trump’s deficit-exploding tax cuts and military spending.
  • Supports Trump’s racist policies.
  • Wants Trump impeached.
  • Has good reason to betray Trump.

There’s just 1 problem:

  • As Trump noted, Sessions is “mentally retarded”. Not only is Sessions intellectually incapable of writing the op-ed, there is no one at the NYT he trusts to conceal his identity.

Mad Dog Mattis – 5%

Mattis fits the profile to a T:

  • Supports Trump’s deficit-exploding tax cuts and military spending.
  • Opposes Trump’s Russian collusion.
  • Wants Trump impeached.
  • Probably doesn’t mind that much if Trump fires him.

There’s just 1 problem:

  • Mattis is too honorable a man to use “lodestar” to wrongly implicate Pence.

Don McGahn – 10%

McGahn fits the profile to a T:

There’s just 1 problem:

  • McGahn could give 2 shits about preserving democratic institutions.
  • If McGahn were going to write an op-ed, he likely would have pretended to oppose Trump’s Nazi policies.

Mike Pence – 20%

Pence fits the profile to a T:

  • Supports Trump’s deficit-exploding tax cuts and military spending.
  • Supports Trump’s racist policies.
  • Opposes Trump’s Russian collusion.
  • Wants Trump impeached.
  • Defends Jeff Sessions while Trump attacks him.
  • Is the only person on Earth that uses the word “lodestar”.
  • Probably doesn’t mind that much if Trump fires him.

There’s just 1 problem:

  • Pence is a dumb guy– but dumb enough to implicate himself by using “lodestar”?? Possibly, but not probably.

John Kelly – 20%

Kelly fits the profile to a T:

  • Thinks Trump is stupid.
  • Supports Trump’s deficit-exploding tax cuts and military spending.
  • Supports Trump’s racist policies.
  • Opposes Trump’s Russian collusion.
  • Wants Trump impeached.
  • Probably not the worst thing in the world if Trump tries to fire him.

There’s just 1 problem:

  • John Kelly doesn’t talk or write anything like Anonymous, and lacks the self-awareness to make the necessary alterations to his speech patterns.

Dan Coats – 30%

It’s Dan Coats guys:

  • Thinks Trump is stupid.
  • Supports Trump’s deficit-exploding tax cuts and military spending.
  • Opposes Trump’s racist policies– but, as a consensus builder, would avoid alienating Nazi (but otherwise patriotic) allies within the Cabinet.
  • Opposes Trump’s Russian collusion.
  • Wants Trump impeached.
  • Probably not the worst thing in the world if Trump tries to fire him.

Most importantly, Coats is:

  • (1) well aware of his frenemy’s use of the word “lodestar” and
  • (2) smart enough to use that knowledge to redirect suspicion elsewhere.

For the record, MFP is documented to be right 94.1% of the time.

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