Expect a “shock poll” or 2 along the way, but in the end, Cruz should win comfortably-ish in the neighborhood of 51-45.
And here it is…
|Ted Cruz||Beta O’Dork|
|Texas Lyceum Poll||41||39|
Here’s the problem:
Texas Democrat turnout in primary season was up a whopping 98%– but Republicans still outvoted Democrats by 500,000 votes (1.5 to 1 million)! In addition, the Kremlin’s propaganda efforts ensure low-information voters will remain perpetually enraged at least until November.
Not only do the fundamentals favor Cruz, but there are no inflections points on the horizon that can substantively alter the race.
- The debates – Existentially unlikable though he may be, Cruz is a Princeton debate champion w/ experience on the presidential stage and SCOTUS– Cruz isn’t going to melt down against a 30-something musician-turned-internet guy.
- The economy – Increasingly, there are early signs of recession. But what are the odds the economic downturn significantly impacts Texas before November?? Zero.
- Concentration camps – Trump’s child molestation camps are probably a wash in Texas?? But either way, Cruz shrewdly insulated himself by pretending to oppose the regime’s kidnapping policies.
Ftr, MFP is now documented to be right 94.1% of the time.