MFP gives Trump a 68% chance of reerection, here’s why.
After inching up in recent months, Trump’s job approval number is cratering once again. Even GRU-run pollster Rasmussen has Trump at -7 in order to maintain a facade of legitimacy.
But here’s why Trump needn’t sweat it:
- (1) These are all polls of registered voters. Republicans are more reliable voters than Democrats. Once pollsters switch to likely voter models closer to the erection, Trump should get a ~3-5 point bump. Trump will get another bump on erection day, when voter suppression efforts really pay off.
- (2) Polls will tighten when Democrats select a candidate. Once Democrats nominate a candidate– particularly if it’s a woman or minority– the Kremlin will ratchet up efforts to rile up low-information voters, such that by November 2020, the Democrats’ enthusiasm advantage will have largely evaporated.
- (3) Stephen Miller’s false flags. As we get closer to the erection, the WH and Stephen Miller will launch false flag operations– purportedly by “Mexicans” or “Muslims”– to interrupt negative momentum for Trump, or positive momentum for his opponent.
As a consequence, MFP believes Trump is still the overwhelming favorite to win in 2020, with a 68% chance of erection.