MFP can now project that after improving WH organization, instilling discipline, and facilitating several legislative victories– new Chief of Staff John Kelly will resign prior to March 2019.
Here are the relevant data points:
- Kelly seeks to reduce the influence of Trump’s low-information advisers. In turn, these advisers will leak to undermine Kelly.
For example, this leak is from Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller:
Kelly and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, another retired general, were also said to have been deeply frustrated with the rollout of Trump’s refugee and immigration ban…both moved swiftly to address gaps in the measure, with Mattis asking that Iraqis who helped U.S. troops be exempt and Kelly clarifying that green-card holders would not be affected.
Mattis and Kelly also agreed in the earliest weeks of Trump’s presidency that one of them should remain in the United States at all times to keep tabs on [Trump].
- Trump will chafe under Kelly’s regimented approach.
- Trump will be irritated by Kelly’s unwillingness to undermine the special counsel.
- Trump will be furious when the media credits Kelly, not Trump, for political wins.
- Over time, Kremlin assets in the WH will use (1) Trump’s low approval ratings and (2) inability to stop leaks (most of which, coming from the assets themselves) to convince Trump to fire Kelly.
Obviously, war w/ North Korea or a false flag attack may extend the time frame slightly. But barring any major disruptions, Kelly will resign between February 2018 and March 2019.