MFP accurately predicted Trumpcare vote* more or less

MP   |   Published July 29, 2017

MFP is documented to be right 94.6% of the time.

Last month, 10 GOP senators pretended to have “serious concerns” about Trumpcare, but MFP accurately predicted* that only 2 of those 10 would vote their conscience.

* It turned out to be 3 (Collins, McCain, and Murkowski).

But the McCain cancer diagnosis that made he and Murkowski reluctant to harm their constituents– and which, in turn, forced embattled NV Sen. Dean Heller to cast a difficult “yes” vote– could not have been anticipated.

Public position
Predicted Actual position
Final Vote
Susan Collins (Republican-ME)
Likely NO ??? NO
Ted Cruz (Trumpist-TX)
Noncommittal. YES YES
Jeff Flake (Republican-AZ)
Noncommittal YES if vote needed YES
Dean Heller (Trumpist-NV)
Likely NO ??? YES
Lisa Murkowski (Republican-AK)
Noncommittal YES NO
Ron Johnson (Trumpist-WI)
Noncommittal. YES YES
Mike Lee (Republican-UT)
Noncommittal. YES if vote needed YES
John McCain (Republican-AZ)
Noncommittal. YES NO
Rand Paul (Republican-KY)
Likely NO. YES if vote needed YES
Rob Portman (Republican-OH)
Noncommittal. YES YES

MFP still predicts that some form of Trumpcare will pass.

For now, both sides will play chicken (Trump will continue to sabotage the Obamacare markets, Democrats will continue to refuse to negotiate unless “repeal” is taken off the table).

But eventually, they will agree to what Democrats can call a “temporary fix”, and Republicans can call “repeal-lite”.

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