(MFP is documented to be right 93.3% of the time.)
Economy
If he just leaves everything alone, Trump’s economy should be the best in 16 years…
| Inflation-adjusted avg. GDP growth | Jobs added (millions) | Avg. UE rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
 Clinton |
3.9 | 23 | 5 |
 Reagan |
3.5 | 16 | 7.5 |
 Carter (single term) |
3.3 | 10 | 6.5 |
 Trump |
~3 | ~10 | ~5 |
 Bush (single term) |
2.3 | 2 | 6 |
 W. |
2.1 | 2 | 5 |
 Obama |
1.5 | 10 | 7.5 |
Kellyanne Conway
She quits to “spend more time with her family” (aka make millions running a super PAC) within ~2 years.
Nikki Haley
* Update 2/4/17
She quits to “spend more time with her family” (aka make millions sitting on a corporate board) within ~2 years.
No 2018 Democrat wave
It would take a fuck up of epic proportions for Trump to lose Congress.
Currently, the Senate is not in play. Democrats have 4-12 vulnerable Senate seats to the GOP’s 2 (Dean Heller in NV and Jeff Flake in AZ).
In the House, the GOP has a 241-194 majority. Democrats would need a 2010 Tea Party-like wave (Republicans picked up 58 seats) to recapture the House.
Obamacare repeal
Obamacare will be repealed and replaced…
But so long as insurance companies are mandated to provide affordable coverage to those with preexisting conditions, no amount of “getting rid of the lines” will prevent rising healthcare costs.
The failure of both Obamacare and Trumpcare (F/X delayed until after 2018 midterms) will pave the way for single-payer.
SCOTUS
Justices Breyer (78), Kennedy (80), and Ginsburg (83) will try to hang on until 2020– but Trump should get 2-4 SCOTUS picks in his 1st term.
Manufacturing
No amount of deregulation can make the American worker preferable to foreign slave labor.
Attempts to artificially inflate American wages through protectionist trade and/or immigration policy will only hasten the transition towards automation– which will displace far more American workers than globalization.
Infrastructure
Trump will get his infrastructure bill…
The only question is how much Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell can water it down.
The Wall
There will be a few miles of an actual wall. The rest will be rickety fencing here and there.
Dreamers
“Dreamers” get amnesty after “extreme vetting”.
Illegal aliens
No mass deportations.
Amnesty in exchange for E-Verify, national ID card, and increased funding for “border security” (aka $$$ to border patrol unions).
Police state
E-Verify, national ID card, and other measures used to track illegal aliens and terrorists will eventually be used by a Democrat POTUS to persecute “radical” conservatives and “extreme” patriots.
D’oh!
Radical Islam
In his inaugural address, Trump promised to “eradicate radical Islamic terrorism”.
At least $1 trillion (in bombing sand, foreign aid, etc.) will be wasted on this endeavor.
Disclaimer
Everything will be cool, unless there is a major terrorist attack– at which point, Trump will go all Revenge of the Sith…
