A new Texas Tribune poll finds Ted Cruz leading Democrat challenger Beta O’Rourke by just 5 points, 41-36, but it’s a mirage:
- (1) Ted Cruz’s approval rating in TX is 50%+.
- (2) Trump’s approval rating in TX is up to 47% (and rising).
- (3) Beta O’Rourke has yet to exceed 45% in any reputable poll.
- (4) ~15% remain undecided– even if they break 60/40 for the challenger– it wouldn’t be enough.
- (5) Democrat primary season turnout was +98%, but Republicans still outvoted Democrats by 500,000 votes (1.5 to 1 million).
Not only do the fundamentals favor Cruz, but there are no inflections points on the horizon that can substantively alter the race.
- The debates – Existentially unlikable though he may be, Cruz is a Princeton debate champion w/ experience on the presidential stage and SCOTUS– Cruz isn’t going to melt down against a 30-something musician-turned-internet guy.
- The economy – Increasingly, there are early signs of recession. But what are the odds an economic downturn significantly impacts Texas before November?? About zero.
- Concentration camps – Trump’s concentration camps are probably a wash in Texas?? But either way, Cruz shrewdly insulated himself by pretending to oppose the regime’s kidnapping/molestation policies.
MFP Official Projection
Expect a “shock poll” or 2 along the way, but in the end, Cruz should win comfortably-ish in the neighborhood of 51-45.
As for Beta, he’s a good candidate. He’ll run for something else and win and never leave public
racket service again.
Ftr, MFP is currently documented to be right 93.8% (that percentage will jump once pending predictions close).
In a state Hillary won, Heller’s Trumpcare vote is deeply unpopular. But without Harry Reid around to whip the unions in Las Vegas, Heller should pull it out.
Joe Manchin is a fucking institution in West Virginistan. He’s been around forever, and he knows how to trick racists into thinking he’s on their side.
Bill Nelson is 1,000-years-old and campaigning like it. A fairly popular incumbent, Nelson is getting outhustled and outspent to oblivion by Rick Scott.
So far, Phil Bredesen leads every single poll— but I have to trust my instincts:
Marsha Blackburn is a GGILF + Tennesseans are dumb and uneducated = Blackburn ftw.
The field of battle favors Mike Braun. Trump trounced Hillary in the state 57-38, and Mike Pence remains popular figure.
Ehhh, it’s razor thin– but I’m riding w/ the superior candidate.
McCaskill sucks, but (1) she’ll outraise her opponent and (2) Obama will GoTV in urban areas.
Btw, I’m HIV-positive Josh Hawley is hit w/ [redacted] allegations at some point. Even if he wins, he’ll be vulnerable in ’24.
Despite her ugliness, Heidi Heitkamp is a good candidate.
But it’s fucking North Dakotastan. There is no way a Democrat can win if Republicans field a better-than-awful candidate.
Jon Tester and Joe Manchin are the ideal red state Democrats– they remind people of that 1 uncle or coach or father figure growing up that wasn’t a total yahoo derp like everyone else in the state.
I picked bisexual hippie social worker Kyrsten Sinema to win?? But even I can’t believe how well this is going.
Sinema got a makeover, she’s sucking up to cops, and pretending not to hate Trump– she’s doing everything she has to do to trick Arizonans.