Based on the following data points, MFP (documented to be right ~95.2% of the time) currently estimates Trump has a 67% chance of reerection:
- (1) Trump’s job approval numbers aren’t nearly as bad as they look– for reasons outlined HERE.
- (2) House incumbents win reerection on avg. by ~30 points.
The House is gerrymandered to such an extent that even if Democrats win the popular vote by 8+ points– as most experts predict– it is unlikely to produce an erectoral wave as it would have in past erections.
Barring catastrophe, Republicans should narrowly retain control of Congress in ’18– allowing Devin Nunes and others to continue stonewalling congressional investigations.
The only way Trump loses reerection is if continues to advance retarded policies, such as:
The wall, end DACA, etc.
Hispanics badly want to be considered “white”. Hispanics (and many Asians) would eagerly hop aboard the Trump Train and persecute Muslims if it would get the heat off them.
Many Judenräte employ this strategery, including Mark Levin and Michael
But by continuing his attacks on Hispanics, Trump makes clear that it will take 2 or 3 more generations before they are accepted in the way that the Irish and Italians were before them (and, to some extent, Jews and Indians (dot, particularly those w/ British accents)).
Cut off Obamacare funding
They don’t know it, but Trump’s low-information supporters disproportionately rely on Obamacare to live.
Cutting off funding could tip 2020 in FL and Rustbelt states.
Launch full-scale war on North Korea (or Iran or whatever, it doesn’t matter which country)
There is a high probability that this would result in:
- Unsecured nuclear material.
- Refugee crises.
- Daily humanitarian crises stories.
- Diplomatic tensions and related economic uncertainty.
- Hundreds of billions wasted.
All of which would further chip away at Trump’s favorability.
Continue encouraging police brutality
More police brutality means more marches, and more division. Initially, this spawns a strong backlash against the victims of injustice.
But over time, it leads to culture war weariness– and resentment towards those stirring shit up for political and/or financial profit.
- Have Jeff Sessions continue locking up potheads
This alienates the #1 market for Trump’s “deep state” schtick.
Of that list, only nuclear war and weed (very occasionally) personally affects me– so I’m just like…