Mofo Politics
Mofo Politics

re: 2018   June 16, 2017

Technically, there are 508 days until the 2018 midterms. But after weekends, recesses, breaks, holidays, and campaign season– Trump has just ~150 working days left to pass:

  • Trumpcare
  • Debt ceiling
  • Budget
  • Tax reform
  • Infrastructure
  • The Wall

And if Democrats win 24 seats and take back the House of Representatives next November, then Trump’s legislative agenda is essentially kaput until after 2020.

Currently, based on (1) the generic ballot, (2) historical precedent, and (3) competitive seats– Democrats stand to gain in the neighborhood of 15-30 seats…

Generic Ballot Actual Net Seats Gained
2002 GOP +1.7 GOP +4.6 GOP +8
2006 Dems +11.5 Dems +7.9 Dems ~+31
2010 GOP +9.4 GOP +6.8 GOP +63 seats
2014 GOP +2.4 GOP +5.7 GOP +2 seats
2018 GOP +6.9 TBD TBD
Erection 2016

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