Mofo Politics
Mofo Politics

MFP projects: Gavin Newsom wins the 2020 Democrat nomination   December 20, 2016

Bill Maher on Newsom ’20:

Gavin Newsom…he could win…Gavin does look like he’s the President. You know, people vote for a tall, good-looking guy…I don’t see anybody in the party who would be a better candidate.

Based on the following data points, MFP can now project that CA Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom has won the 2020 Democrat nomination…

Handsome

But on the Christian Bale in American Psycho end of the spectrum– that it to say, nobody would be super shocked to find runaway girls locked in a secret torture chamber in his basement…

Sex

Gavin fucks around…

But to his credit, Gavin only bangs 7’s or higher.

You may recall Gavin violated Man Code by banging his own Chief of Staff’s MILF wife:

While he was divorcing Fox News’ own Kimberly Guilfoyle (and totally not before):

Normally, this parade of paramours is disqualifying. But Clinton and Trump render such criticism moot.

Lack of experience

Normally, Lt. Gov. and mayor of San Francisco would be inadequate. But Obama and Trump render such criticism moot.

Risky gubernatorial run

Gavin is running for CA gov. in ’18. A loss would spell doom for his presidential aspirations. However, his opponents are a bunch of losers— each more inept than the next.

Timing

Top-tier candidates typically prefer to run in non-incumbent cycles. But Gavin has surely learned the lesson of Hillary ’04, Christie ’12, and Warren ’16— opportunity isn’t a Jehovah’s Witness.

Fundraising

Gavin is a rich, well-connected liberal from Marin County, CA w/ ties to Hollywood and Silicon Valley– fundraising won’t be an issue.

Narrative

A billionaire benefactor (no judgment, Marco Rubio has one too) launched Gavin’s career.

Fortunately, Gavin comes from a “broken” home– from which he can spin semi-credible sob story.

The base

Gavin will never, ever, ever be outflanked from the left (the way Bernie outflanked Hillary):

To his left, even Cenk Uygur and human STD-infested petri dish, Ana Ksdfsdkfjsdkfian fear to tread.

Kinda sorta a criminal

From the Boston Tea Party to Abraham Lincoln, American history teaches us you can break the law as long as you win.

In 2004, Gavin illegally issued marriage licenses to same-sex couples, and encouraged others to do so– in direct violation of state law.

History has rendered its verdict: Gavin is a visionary, whereas Kim Davis is a low-class hayseed to be humiliated and scorned…

I’m guessing there won’t be a sympathetic Kim Davis Hollywood bioepic any time soon.

Adam Carolla

In an infamous 2013 interview, Adam Carolla humiliated Gavin, and exposed his lack of intellectual depth…

But W. and Trump render such criticism moot.

Liar

Gavin is a prolific liar…

But Bush, Clinton, W., Obama, and Trump render such criticism moot.

Narcissist sociopath

Like Clinton and Trump, Gavin is a narcissist sociopath:

  • Self-important.
  • Self-entitled.
  • Craves adulation.
  • Lacks genuine empathy.
  • Ambitious and driven.
  • Charming and manipulative.
  • Interpersonally exploitative.
  • Dishonest.
  • Womanizing.
  • Vacillates between invincibility and inadequacy.
  • Feelings of unworthiness followed by self-destructive behavior.

In other words, he’s an excellent politician. But there is always the danger he can break character in a high-stakes setting, such as a statewide debate or nationally-televised interview.

Achilles’ heel

The best politicians are resilient, as demonstrated by their ability to overcome a personal trauma or seemingly insurmountable political obstacle…

  • Reagan: Reagan didn’t just lose in ’68 and ’76, he endured withering attack– including from his own party. At his age, it took unyielding self-belief to try a 3rd time.
  • Clinton: Clinton stopped his dad from beating his mother. Then, in ’82, Clinton completed one of the greatest comebacks in modern erectoral history.
  • Trump: Trump overcame bankruptcy, survived the venomous snake pit that is NY real estate, and went to war every single day for 30 years w/ the most vicious media market in the western world, bar London.

Gavin, on the other hand, has never faced a single day of real adversity in his entire life-. He’s essentially Jon Hamm as 30 Rock’s Drew Baird…

Weak field

Kirsten Gillibrand

* Updated 12/23/16.

Kirsten Gillibrand has all the makings of a winning candidate: Bright, attractive, good campaigner, and she is the candidate of destiny— the woman who inherited Hillary Clinton’s seat avenges her defeat…???????

She could be the one.

Except for 1 thing……she’s getting really fat (again). MFP is confident Gillibrand will be fat AF by ’20, and therefore, not a legitimate threat.

Projection

In ’16, MFP is the only highly prestigious outlet to exactly predict the final tally…

MFP RCP LAT Actual
Hillary 48 47 44 48
Trump 46 44 47 46

MFP can now make a projection…

There is an 15% chance Gavin is the nominee, but it jumps to 66.6% if he wins the gubernatorial race (which he will, barring “Grab them by the pussy” II), and then jumps to 75% if Andrew Cuomo’s private investigators are unable to find any underage women in his past.

The Regime

Fap check: “Trump’s wall is useless because Mexicans will just use a ladder”

Historical Cuckspective

Another reason to hate Bill Clinton

Erection 2016

Trump: How come nobody defends me when people goof on my looks??

The Regime

“Trump’s not THAT bad” guy Bill Burr finally hates Trump